According to Mr. Elijah Mbaru, Chief Executive Officer of the Kenya Ship Agents’ Association (KSAA), tough times may lie ahead for those who assume shipping is a simple business. The global liner shipping industry, long known for its unpredictability, appears to be entering another difficult period, with clear implications for East Africa’s trade and logistics sector. After several years of unusually strong profits driven largely by pandemic-related disruptions, analysts are now warning that this cycle may be coming to an end.
Asian consultancy Linerlytica has cautioned that the large cash reserves built up by container shipping lines are quickly shrinking, pointing to a return to tighter operating conditions. The firm has further projected that several major global carriers, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, may record losses in their liner shipping businesses as market conditions weaken.
For East Africa, these global trends are not just distant headlines. Shipping lines serving the region already face high operating costs, infrastructure challenges, and complex regulations. A prolonged downturn in global shipping is likely to lead to tougher commercial terms, more frequent surcharges, and more cautious deployment of vessels on African trade lanes. These pressures are often passed down to ship agents, freight forwarders, traders, and ultimately consumers.
Mr. Mbaru also noted that when shipping lines come under financial pressure, the effects are quickly felt at local ports. He explained that carriers may reduce services, tighten payment terms, or adjust charges, all of which affect costs and service levels for port users and agents in Kenya and across the East African Community (EAC) region. He stressed that clear communication and structured engagement between shipping lines, agents, and regulators will be essential to maintain stability at East African ports.
From the perspective of freight forwarders and customs agents, the current situation highlights long-standing concerns about exposure to global market shocks. As shipping lines seek to protect their margins, risks are often pushed down the supply chain without corresponding changes to local rules or timelines. This creates particular difficulties for small and medium-sized logistics operators who play a key role in regional trade.
Mr. Charles Mwebembezi, the President of the Federation of East African Freight Forwarders Associations (FEAFFA), has warned that downturns in global shipping often expose weaknesses in regional logistics systems. He noted that when international carriers scale back operations, the impact is felt most in developing regions where logistics costs are already high. “We need stronger regional cooperation, open dialogue with shipping lines, and policy responses that support trade facilitation rather than disrupt it,” he said, emphasizing that freight forwarders should be seen as partners in trade, not simply as buffers for global market pressures.
As the liner shipping industry adjusts, East African stakeholders will need to operate in a more demanding environment. Changing freight rates, new surcharges, and shifts in services underline the need for collective advocacy and informed engagement. For FEAFFA and its member national associations, working closely with governments, port authorities, and industry partners will be key to protecting regional trade and competitiveness.
The writer, Andrew Onionga, is the Communications and Advocacy Officer at the Federation of East African Freight Forwarders Associations (FEAFFA) secretariat and can be reached at oniongaam@gmail.com
